Skip to content

2014 Senate · SC

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 917 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 58%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.01% · Republican 60.15%

R+22.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 58 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.014 − 60.151 = -22.137
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-22.137) = -4.863
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.863| = 4.863

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34504, race ID 36 (538 database).