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2014 Governor · SC

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 917 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 51%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.42% · Republican 55.90%

R+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 51 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.416 − 55.897 = -14.481
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-14.481) = -5.519
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.519| = 5.519

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34504, race ID 1244 (538 database).