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2014 Senate · GA

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.683) = 2.683
  4. Absolute miss = |2.683| = 2.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34484, race ID 17 (538 database).