Skip to content

2014 Governor · GA

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 602 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 49%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 49 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-7.860) = 0.860
  4. Absolute miss = |0.860| = 0.860

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34484, race ID 1249 (538 database).