Skip to content

2014 Senate · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 597 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.72% · Republican 56.19%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.721 − 56.188 = -15.467
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-15.467) = 10.467
  4. Absolute miss = |10.467| = 10.467

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34444, race ID 15 (538 database).