Skip to content

2014 Senate · NM

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 614 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 45%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.56% · Republican 44.44%

D+11.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 45 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.559 − 44.441 = 11.118
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.118) = -5.118
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.118| = 5.118

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34436, race ID 3 (538 database).