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2014 Senate · KY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 556 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 50%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.72% · Republican 56.19%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 50 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.721 − 56.188 = -15.467
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-15.467) = 6.467
  4. Absolute miss = |6.467| = 6.467

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34422, race ID 15 (538 database).