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2014 Governor · NH

Vox Populi Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 638 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 47%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 47 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (4.948) = -7.948
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.948| = 7.948

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34417, race ID 1234 (538 database).