Skip to content

2014 Senate · NC

National Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 41%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 41 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.565) = 1.564
  4. Absolute miss = |1.564| = 1.564

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34416, race ID 14 (538 database).