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2014 Senate · NJ

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 750 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 40%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.84% · Republican 42.33%

D+13.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.836 − 42.326 = 13.510
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (13.510) = 0.490
  4. Absolute miss = |0.490| = 0.490

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34410, race ID 10 (538 database).