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2014 Senate · NC

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 1,727 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 41.5%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 41.5 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.565) = 3.564
  4. Absolute miss = |3.564| = 3.564

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34405, race ID 14 (538 database).