2014 Senate · NC
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 559 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%
R+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-1.565) = 3.564
- Absolute miss = |3.564| = 3.564
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34402, race ID 14 (538 database).