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2014 Senate · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 949 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 27.8% · Republican 62.7%

R+34.9

The certified result

Democrat 28.55% · Republican 68.01%

R+39.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27.8 − 62.7 = -34.90
  2. Actual margin = 28.549 − 68.008 = -39.459
  3. Signed miss = -34.90 − (-39.459) = 4.560
  4. Absolute miss = |4.560| = 4.560

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34397, race ID 29 (538 database).