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2014 Governor · OK

SoonerPoll.com · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 949 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 48.4%

R+8.4

The certified result

Democrat 41.01% · Republican 55.80%

R+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 48.4 = -8.40
  2. Actual margin = 41.007 − 55.805 = -14.798
  3. Signed miss = -8.40 − (-14.798) = 6.398
  4. Absolute miss = |6.398| = 6.398

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34397, race ID 1242 (538 database).