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2014 Governor · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44.5% · Republican 50.8%

R+6.3

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.5 − 50.8 = -6.30
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -6.30 − (-7.860) = 1.560
  4. Absolute miss = |1.560| = 1.560

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34389, race ID 1249 (538 database).