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2014 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.6% · Republican 47.4%

R+0.8

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.6 − 47.4 = -0.80
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -0.80 − (-7.683) = 6.883
  4. Absolute miss = |6.883| = 6.883

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34378, race ID 17 (538 database).