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2014 Governor · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46.1% · Republican 47.5%

R+1.4

The certified result

Democrat 44.89% · Republican 52.75%

R+7.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.1 − 47.5 = -1.40
  2. Actual margin = 44.890 − 52.750 = -7.860
  3. Signed miss = -1.40 − (-7.860) = 6.460
  4. Absolute miss = |6.460| = 6.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34378, race ID 1249 (538 database).