2014 House · NH-1
New England College Polling Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-31 (4 days before the election) · 778 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 52%
R+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.10% · Republican 51.71%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
- Actual margin = 48.105 − 51.706 = -3.601
- Signed miss = -9.00 − (-3.601) = -5.400
- Absolute miss = |-5.400| = 5.400
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34377, race ID 5574 (538 database).