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2014 Governor · MA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 591 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 44%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.54% · Republican 48.40%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 44 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.536 − 48.397 = -1.861
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (-1.861) = 4.861
  4. Absolute miss = |4.861| = 4.861

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34376, race ID 1251 (538 database).