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2014 Governor · CO

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 844 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 45%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.30% · Republican 45.95%

D+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 45 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.296 − 45.954 = 3.342
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (3.342) = -8.342
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.342| = 8.342

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34374, race ID 1247 (538 database).