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2014 Governor · MA

University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2014-10-23 (12 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 45%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.54% · Republican 48.40%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.536 − 48.397 = -1.861
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-1.861) = -2.139
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.139| = 2.139

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34373, race ID 1251 (538 database).