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2014 Senate · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 1,159 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52.2% · Republican 38.1%

D+14.1

The certified result

Democrat 54.61% · Republican 41.33%

D+13.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.2 − 38.1 = 14.10
  2. Actual margin = 54.614 − 41.329 = 13.285
  3. Signed miss = 14.10 − (13.285) = 0.815
  4. Absolute miss = |0.815| = 0.815

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34372, race ID 2 (538 database).