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2014 Governor · MI

Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 1,159 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.4% · Republican 48.3%

R+4.9

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.4 − 48.3 = -4.90
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = -4.90 − (-4.066) = -0.834
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.834| = 0.834

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34372, race ID 1248 (538 database).