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2014 Governor · CA

Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) · fieldwork ended 2014-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 941 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 33%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.97% · Republican 40.03%

D+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 33 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.970 − 40.030 = 19.940
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (19.940) = 1.060
  4. Absolute miss = |1.060| = 1.060

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34371, race ID 1255 (538 database).