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2014 Governor · KS

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 1,137 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 39%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.13% · Republican 49.82%

R+3.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 39 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.130 − 49.821 = -3.691
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.691) = 2.691
  4. Absolute miss = |2.691| = 2.691

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34367, race ID 1228 (538 database).