Skip to content

2014 Senate · GA

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 436 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 49%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-7.683) = -0.317
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.317| = 0.317

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34364, race ID 17 (538 database).