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2014 Senate · GA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 1,743 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 42.2% · Republican 43.7%

R+1.5

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.2 − 43.7 = -1.50
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -1.50 − (-7.683) = 6.183
  4. Absolute miss = |6.183| = 6.183

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34361, race ID 17 (538 database).