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2014 Governor · MI

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-4.066) = 2.066
  4. Absolute miss = |2.066| = 2.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34354, race ID 1248 (538 database).