Skip to content

2014 Senate · CO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 618 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 46%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 46 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.945) = -0.056
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.056| = 0.056

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34351, race ID 23 (538 database).