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2014 Senate · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 573 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 46.26% · Republican 48.20%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.260 − 48.205 = -1.945
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.945) = 1.944
  4. Absolute miss = |1.944| = 1.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34348, race ID 23 (538 database).