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2014 Senate · NH

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 555 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 42%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.45% · Republican 48.21%

D+3.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.455 − 48.211 = 3.244
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.244) = 4.756
  4. Absolute miss = |4.756| = 4.756

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34347, race ID 8 (538 database).