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2014 House · NH-2

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 294 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 30%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.87% · Republican 44.87%

D+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 30 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.874 − 44.869 = 10.005
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (10.005) = 12.996
  4. Absolute miss = |12.996| = 12.996

The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34347, race ID 5575 (538 database).