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2014 Governor · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 688 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 38%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 38 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (-1.077) = 8.078
  4. Absolute miss = |8.078| = 8.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34346, race ID 1253 (538 database).