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2014 Governor · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 1,690 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.38% · Republican 47.43%

D+4.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.381 − 47.433 = 4.948
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (4.948) = 0.052
  4. Absolute miss = |0.052| = 0.052

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34345, race ID 1234 (538 database).