2014 Senate · OR
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 30%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.73% · Republican 36.87%
D+18.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 30 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 55.728 − 36.866 = 18.862
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (18.862) = 0.138
- Absolute miss = |0.138| = 0.138
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34342, race ID 20 (538 database).