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2014 Governor · IA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 1,112 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 49%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.27% · Republican 58.99%

R+21.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 49 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.269 − 58.990 = -21.721
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-21.721) = 6.721
  4. Absolute miss = |6.721| = 6.721

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34337, race ID 1226 (538 database).