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2014 Governor · MA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42.6% · Republican 46%

R+3.4

The certified result

Democrat 46.54% · Republican 48.40%

R+1.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42.6 − 46 = -3.40
  2. Actual margin = 46.536 − 48.397 = -1.861
  3. Signed miss = -3.40 − (-1.861) = -1.539
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.539| = 1.539

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34330, race ID 1251 (538 database).