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2014 Senate · GA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 975 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-7.683) = 6.683
  4. Absolute miss = |6.683| = 6.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34329, race ID 17 (538 database).