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2014 Governor · MI

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 914 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.86% · Republican 50.92%

R+4.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.857 − 50.923 = -4.066
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-4.066) = 3.066
  4. Absolute miss = |3.066| = 3.066

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34328, race ID 1248 (538 database).