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2014 Senate · GA

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2014-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.21% · Republican 52.89%

R+7.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.206 − 52.889 = -7.683
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-7.683) = 3.683
  4. Absolute miss = |3.683| = 3.683

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34327, race ID 17 (538 database).