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2014 Senate · AK

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2014-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,052 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.83% · Republican 47.96%

R+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.833 − 47.962 = -2.129
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-2.129) = 1.130
  4. Absolute miss = |1.130| = 1.130

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34324, race ID 12 (538 database).