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2014 Governor · WI

Marquette University Law School · fieldwork ended 2014-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 1,164 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 50%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.59% · Republican 52.26%

R+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.588 − 52.263 = -5.675
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-5.675) = -1.325
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.325| = 1.325

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34323, race ID 1245 (538 database).