2014 Senate · MA
MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 494 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 32%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.87% · Republican 37.98%
D+23.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 32 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 61.869 − 37.984 = 23.885
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (23.885) = 1.115
- Absolute miss = |1.115| = 1.115
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34318, race ID 31 (538 database).