2014 Governor · MA
MassINC Polling Group · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 494 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 43%
R+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.54% · Republican 48.40%
R+1.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 43 = -1.00
- Actual margin = 46.536 − 48.397 = -1.861
- Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.861) = 0.861
- Absolute miss = |0.861| = 0.861
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34318, race ID 1251 (538 database).