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2014 Governor · OR

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2014-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 552 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 40%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.89% · Republican 44.13%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.889 − 44.127 = 5.762
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.762) = 4.238
  4. Absolute miss = |4.238| = 4.238

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34312, race ID 1240 (538 database).