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2014 Governor · FL

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 41%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 41 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.077) = 2.078
  4. Absolute miss = |2.078| = 2.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34311, race ID 1253 (538 database).