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2014 Senate · HI

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,221 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 29%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.77% · Republican 27.70%

D+42.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 29 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.770 − 27.703 = 42.067
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (42.067) = -16.067
  4. Absolute miss = |-16.067| = 16.067

The poll overstated the Republican by 16.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34255, race ID 34 (538 database).