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2014 Governor · HI

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2014-10-18 (17 days before the election) · 1,221 respondents · IVR/Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 34%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.45% · Republican 37.08%

D+12.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 34 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.454 − 37.076 = 12.378
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (12.378) = -6.378
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.378| = 6.378

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34255, race ID 1227 (538 database).