Skip to content

2014 Governor · CA

Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2014-10-16 (19 days before the election) · 976 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 36%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.97% · Republican 40.03%

D+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 36 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.970 − 40.030 = 19.940
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (19.940) = -3.940
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.940| = 3.940

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34247, race ID 1255 (538 database).