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2014 Governor · FL

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2014-10-20 (15 days before the election) · 5,422 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 46%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.07% · Republican 48.14%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 46 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.067 − 48.144 = -1.077
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.077) = 0.078
  4. Absolute miss = |0.078| = 0.078

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34192, race ID 1253 (538 database).